August 5, 2026 | 10:31 am
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Southeast Asia is expected to experience hotter and drier conditions over the coming months, increasing the risk of wildfires and transboundary haze as El Nino strengthens and suppresses rainfall, according to the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Centre (ASMC).
In its latest seasonal outlook released on Tuesday, August 4, the Singapore-based center said El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to intensify over the next few months.
"El Nino conditions tend to lead to an increased chance of below-normal rainfall for much of the southern ASEAN region during August-October," ASMC said.
The agency also forecast that the southwest monsoon will persist through most of the August-October period, with prevailing winds blowing mainly from the southeast and southwest.
With the monsoon rain belt expected to remain north of the Equator, southern parts of Southeast Asia are likely to experience continued dry weather, while wetter-than-usual conditions are expected across northern ASEAN.
Above-average temperatures are forecast across most of the region between August and October, potentially worsening drought conditions.
ASMC warned that prolonged dry weather, combined with prevailing southeast and southwest winds, could increase the number of wildfire hotspots and heighten the risk of transboundary haze affecting neighboring countries.
The Mekong subregion is expected to remain relatively less affected, although wildfire hotspot activity could still increase in areas experiencing below-average rainfall.
BMKG: Indonesia Sees Driest July This Year Since 1991
20 jam lalu
This year's July has become Indonesia's driest July since 1991, according to the country's weather agency BMKG.
Super El Nino Threat Grows Across the US. Here's What to Expect
2 hari lalu
A developing Super El Nino could bring floods, heavy snow, severe storms, and warmer weather across parts of the United States this winter.
El Nino Triggers Drought and Wildfires Across Indonesia
2 hari lalu
BNPB confirmed that forest fires and drought continue to dominate disaster reports across several regions due to El Nino.
Drought Hits Areas Around Jakarta as Dry Season Intensifies
4 hari lalu
A prolonged dry season has triggered drought and clean water shortages around Jakarta, with Bekasi receiving most emergency water aid.
Why Rain Falls Despite Strong El Nino, Dry Season
4 hari lalu
BMKG explains why heavy rainfall continues to occur locally across parts of Indonesia despite a severe dry season driven by a strengthening El Nino.
Indonesia's Dry Season to Be Drier This Year, Peak in September
5 hari lalu
The Head of BMKG has stated that they will expand the Weather Modification Operation (WMO) from the current areas in South Sumatra and Central Kalimantan.
Indonesia Forecasts El Nino to Last Through First Quarter of 2027
5 hari lalu
Indonesia forecasts El Nino will persist into early 2027, with stronger intensity increasing drought and wildfire risks nationwide.
Jakarta Ready for Weather Modification amid El Nino Threat
5 hari lalu
The Jakarta Government is preparing weather modification operations with BMKG as a severe El Nino threatens the city with prolonged drought.
How Two Wars and El Nino Could Fuel World Hunger
6 hari lalu
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East haven't yet crippled global food supplies. But El Nino multiply the risks.
BMKG Ramps Up Support as Indonesia Faces Drought and El Nino
7 hari lalu
BMKG will strengthen its support in preparation for the coinciding drought season and El Nino this year.
