TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - So far, Qatar's response to an Israeli strike on a building in the country's capital Doha on Tuesday, which killed five lower-ranking political leaders of the militant group Hamas and a local security officer, has been limited to verbal condemnation.
The emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, denounced the attack and said his country held Israel "responsible for repercussions."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attack was "fully justified" given Hamas had organized the October 7, 2023, terror attack on Israel that killed more than 1,200 people and saw some 250 people taken hostage. Netanyahu also tied it in with the shooting in occupied East Jerusalem, which killed six people on Monday.
For its part, Hamas — an Islamist militant group, which is categorized as a terror organization by Israel, the United States, the European Union and others — has only confirmed that Himam al-Hayya, the son of Hamas's top negotiator Khalil al-Hayya, was killed.
According to the AFP news agency, Khalil al-Hayya and Hamas' leader abroad Khaled Meshaal were also in the building that was targeted. AFP said that it had been unable to reach either of them.
Diplomacy or Military Escalation?
"The strike is a wake-up call for the region as a whole, where the boundaries of traditional partnerships and alliances are being redefined," Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the London-based think tank Chatham House, told DW.
"The Gulf states know that their partnerships with the United States are important economically and from a security perspective, so it's hard to see any immediate rupture or break," she added.
Hugh Lovatt, a research fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, doubted that the current situation would escalate into a conflict between Qatar and Israel.
"Qatar will absolutely not strike back militarily," he told DW. Instead, he speculated that Qatar could use its sovereign wealth fund to exert economic pressure.
This view was echoed by Neil Quilliam, foreign affairs specialist at the London-based consulting firm Azure Strategy.
"Qatar is not prepared to escalate the situation," he told DW. "Striking back would invite Israel to respond with greater force and Doha's confidence in the US to afford its protection must be shaken to the core at present."
Qatar and the US, which is Israel's most important partner and a strong supporter of its current war on Gaza, are also strategic allies. Qatar is home to the largest US military base in the region and uses US air defense systems.
US President Donald Trump told US media that he was "not thrilled" about the attack. He also stated in a post on social media that he had not been notified about the strike on Qatar in advance. He said, "This was a decision made by [Israeli] Prime Minister Netanyahu; it was not a decision made by me."
"I view Qatar as a strong Ally and friend of the U.S., and feel very badly about the location of the attack," Trump wrote, but he also pointed out that he believed that eliminating Hamas remained a "worthy goal."
Are Gaza negotiations at stake?
Tuesday's attack on Doha also interrupted the latest round of negotiations on a ceasefire in Gaza and the possible release of the Hamas-held hostages after almost two years of war.
Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman initially said Qatar would not be deterred by the attack.
"Qatar has spared no effort to stop this war and will do whatever it can to stop this war, to stop this hostility on Gaza," he told reporters, adding that its mediation "will continue, and nothing will deter us from continuing this role."
Qatar's established position as a key negotiator between Israel and Hamas is based on its unique links to both sides of the conflict.
Later on Wednesday, however, Al Thani told US broadcaster CNN that he is "reassessing everything" around his country's role in ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel.
"I've been rethinking, even about the entire process for the last few weeks, that Netanyahu was just wasting our time," he said.
In Quilliam's view, "Qatar really is the mediator extraordinaire in the region when it comes to Israel."
This has particularly developed since 2012, when the political leadership of Hamas moved from Syria to Qatar's capital, Doha. At the time, the US wanted to prevent Hamas from moving to Iran, a firm backer of the militant group with whom Iran shares the opposition towards Israel and the United States.
In Doha, Washington assumed, it would be easier to monitor the group.
For Quilliam, Qatar's ties to Hamas can best be described as a working relationship.
"Qatar is more inclined towards expressions of political Islam in the region," he said. Neighboring countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are more outspoken against Islamist groups.
He added that Qatar was also a robust critic of Israel, standing out from other states in the region [such as Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates, which established diplomatic ties with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords brokered by the United States in 2020].
However, he pointed out that while Qatar respected Hamas as a political and resistance movement, it had not publicly endorsed Hamas' sole control over Gaza.
Qatar's stance has generally been appreciated by Israel, which has built up trust in Qatar's negotiation skills over time.
Nonetheless, Qatar and Israel have not established formal ties, though they have maintained pragmatic relations since the 1990s.
For Netanyahu's government, keeping Qatar at the negotiation table is important as there is growing pressure from within Israel and abroad to end the war in Gaza triggered by the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023.
Since then, more than 64,500 Palestinians have been killed according to unconfirmed but widely considered reliable numbers from the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health.
Around 50 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, with only 20 believed to be alive.
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