TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that atmospheric dynamics will still support an increase in the supply of water vapor and the growth of convective clouds in parts of West Java from March 9 to 15, 2026. According to the weather forecaster at the BMKG Climatology Station, Retno Kartika, the relatively warm sea surface temperature across Indonesian waters plays a role.
"The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) atmospheric wave phenomenon is predicted to remain active, and the Kelvin wave contributes to rain cloud formation," she said in a statement on Sunday, March 8th, 2026.
In addition, there is potential for wind convergence and wind shear to form in the West Java region. The level of atmospheric instability ranges from mild to strong. According to her, all of these factors support the potential for an increase in convective cloud formation on a local scale in West Java.
Moderate to heavy rain accompanied by lightning and strong winds may occur locally and briefly on Monday, March 9, 2026, in Bekasi, Bogor Regency, Karawang, Purwakarta, Subang, Cianjur, Sukabumi, Bandung Regency, Sumedang, Cirebon, Majalengka, Kuningan, Garut, Tasikmalaya, Ciamis, Banjar City, and Pangandaran.
On Tuesday, the same conditions may potentially occur in Bogor Regency, Subang, Cianjur, Bandung Regency, Sumedang, Indramayu, Majalengka, Kuningan, Garut, Tasikmalaya, Ciamis. On Wednesday, these conditions may potentially occur in Subang, Cianjur, Sukabumi, Sumedang, Majalengka, Kuningan, Garut.
Moderate to heavy rain accompanied by lightning and strong winds on Thursday may potentially occur in Bogor, Subang, Cianjur, Sumedang, Majalengka, Kuningan, Garut, while on Friday the potential is only in Indramayu. The conditions on Sunday may potentially occur in Bogor, Cianjur, Sukabumi, Bandung Regency, West Bandung, Sumedang, Cirebon, Indramayu, Majalengka, Kuningan, Garut, and Pangandaran.
According to the BMKG, some areas in West Java have experienced increased rainfall over the past week due to several factors, including warm sea surface temperatures in Indonesian waters and MJO wave activity, which contributes to the formation of rain clouds. Then, active low-frequency atmospheric waves in parts of West Java are supported by air moisture and atmospheric instability ranging from mild to strong. Heavy to extreme rainfall occurred in Ciamis, Kuningan, Cirebon, Sukabumi, Tasikmalaya, Bandung Regency, and West Bandung.
Read: BMKG Forecasts Rain, Thunderstorms Across Indonesia Today
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