September 10, 2025 | 11:32 am
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The rupiah is expected to weaken on Wednesday, September 10, 2025, as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of US inflation data.
According to Bank Woori Saudara analyst Rully Nova, the rupiah is projected to trade in the range of Rp16,450 to Rp16,550 per US dollar.
“The rupiah is projected to weaken today, driven by the global factor of a significant rise in the US dollar index. This stems from investor caution ahead of US inflation data, which will be released tonight and is likely to influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision tomorrow,” Rully said, as quoted by Antara.
US inflation for August is estimated at 2.9 percent, up from 2.7 percent the previous month. Despite this, markets remain optimistic about the prospect of the Fed cutting interest rates up to three times by the end of the year if inflation continues to cool.
“The cut could be as much as 50 basis points. Even if inflation worsens, a 25-basis-point cut is still possible this month due to signs of a cooling labor market,” Rully explained.
Domestic Pressures Add to Weakness
Beyond global sentiment, the rupiah is also under pressure from domestic factors, particularly foreign selling in the government bond market.
Investor skepticism over the ability of the newly appointed Finance Minister to manage fiscal risks has fueled the sell-off, with net foreign outflows in bonds reaching Rp18.6 trillion as of Tuesday.
PT Doo Financial Futures President Director Ariston Tjendra also pointed to the cabinet transition as a key source of market anxiety.
“The transition in the Ministry of Finance is creating negative sentiment. Investors want to see whether the new Finance Minister can deliver,” Ariston said.
Still, he noted that the US dollar is facing downward pressure due to expectations of a Fed rate cut this month.
“There’s still a chance the rupiah remains under pressure, but movements may be limited around Rp16,480, with potential support at Rp16,380,” Ariston added.
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