TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - As the Iran war spreads, old sectarian rivalries of the kind that brought Iraq to the brink of civil war two decades ago seem to be making a worrying comeback, locals say.
You can see it on Iraqi social media, and you can feel it in the street, Wissam Yassin, a digital marketer based in the southern Iraqi city of Basra, observes.
"You can tell that a segment of the Shiite community [in Iraq] views this battle as existential," he told DW.
"They see the weakening of Iran as a direct threat to themselves, not only on an emotional level but also in terms of the political power they currently have here. They see any strike against Iran as a strike against them."
Meanwhile, many in Iraq's Sunni community seem to perceive the war as "an opportunity to rearrange the political landscape, as Iranian influence on Iraq gets weaker," Wissam, who is Shiite himself, continued. "And that sectarian division is the most dangerous thing for Iraq."
"What happened after the dictator Saddam Hussein was removed will be a drop in the ocean compared to what will happen here after the death of Khamenei," Iraqi journalist Kamal Alaash warned on social media this week. "What's coming will change the region, maybe even borders. Oh lord, let Iraq get through this safely."
Iraq as a battleground for Iran war
This is because, for Iraqis, what happens in Iran never stays in Iran.
Iraq shares an around 1,500 kilometer border with the neighboring country as well as strong commercial, political and military ties.
It is also the only country in the region that has been attacked by both sides in this conflict, Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at British think tank Chatham House, told DW.
After the US and Israel attacked Iran on the weekend, the latter retaliated by targeting US bases all around the Middle East. In Iraq, local paramilitaries allied with Iran also tried to attack American targets in their own country.
At the same time, US or Israeli forces (it is unclear which country was responsible) also bombed Iran-allied paramilitaries inside Iraq.
At the moment, it looks like Iran is going to try to prolong this conflict, something the US doesn't seem to have much appetite for, Mansour argued: "Iran will want to take advantage of that [lack of appetite] to raise the costs of decisions made by [US President Donald] Trump. And Iraq will, of course, feel that cost too."
Economic danger for Iraq from Iran war
Besides direct violence, other downstream impacts could be financial.
According to the Iran-Iraq Joint Chamber of Commerce, bilateral trade between the two countries amounted to $12 billion (€10.2 billion) in 2024. Iran is thought to supply around a fifth of Iraq's consumer goods and known to use Iraq to bypass US sanctions and access foreign currencies.
Instability in Iran will likely upend those economic and trade relationships.
"Keep in mind also that Iran is Iraq's main energy supplier for electricity," Mansour pointed out, "so that's a big question going into another hot summer."
In the past, when power and water ran out during the country's unbearably hot summers, angry locals were quick to protest.
In 2023, Iranian gas was used to generate around 29% of Iraq's electricity, the Netherlands-based think tank Clingendael Institute reported last year.
A worker is pictured at the Khurmala power plant, south of Arbil, the capital of Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region.A worker is pictured at the Khurmala power plant, south of Arbil, the capital of Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region.
"Iraqis are experienced adjusting to difficult times, so there will be less destabilization in the short term," said Hamzeh Hadad, an independent Iraqi researcher based in Baghdad. "But if the war is prolonged, that could change."
The Iraqi state is heavily reliant on oil sales, Haddad pointed out. If blocked tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz eventually stops oil income, that would have an impact on Iraq's ability to pay its civil servants, he says.
The country has one of the biggest public sector workforces in the world and the Iraqi government pays salaries or benefits like pensions to around 7 million Iraqis. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, after oil prices fell, the government found itself unable to pay salaries on time, resulting in demonstrations around the country.
Political changes in Baghdad likely
Iran is known to have an outsize influence in Iraqi politics due to its supporters in Shiite Muslim parties and paramilitaries.
After elections in November 2025, Iraq is currently forming its next government, a process that is always fraught as various demographic groups jostle for ministries and power.
Negotiations stalled last month because of a debate over the next prime minister. The US denounced the controversial candidature of former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki because he's considered too close to Iran. But diminished Iranian influence could change those leadership calculations.
"The government formation process will be impacted by this [war]," Chatham House expert Mansour said. "That could go many different ways, anything from delays to potentially even the formation of an emergency government just to deal with this war."
How Iran war could help Iraq's sovereignty
Foreign interference has been impacting Iraq for way too long, Mohammed Anouz, a lawyer and former member of the Iraqi parliament, told DW.
"It's one of the reasons why we have been unable to be independent in our decision making; we want decisions to be made in the interests of our own nation," he argued.
"An Iran that is less focused on meddling in Iraqi affairs could allow the Iraqi state to reestablish its sovereignty," Victoria Taylor, director of the Iraq Initiative at US-based think tank, the Atlantic Council, pointed out in a dispatch written this week.
"A weakened Iran or the fall of the regime provides a dramatic opportunity to alter the course of Iraq, binding it more closely to the West and the region and reducing Iran's influence."
It is certain that changes in Iran will affect Iraqi politics, Haddad confirmed.
"But it's unclear if those will be negative or positive in the long run," he noted. "Any instability in Iran can easily spill across the border, and there are very few positives to come out of war. Also, it's not clear whether any new Iranian regime would be hostile to Iraq or not."
"Some may see this as a kind of positive change," Mansour added. "But the challenge is that nobody is sure what comes next. History tells us that there's more likely to be more chaos and more violence before anything is settled, and that, I think, is a scary thought for many Iraqis."
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