TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Global tourism is expecting to take hits due to the conflict in the Gulf, with Thailand, Southeat Asia's most popular destination, eyeing 25% decline from the 2026 target if war lasts more than three months. To offset this decrease, the Thai government aims to target short-haul tourists from neighboring countries.
Thailand's Minister of Tourism and Sports, Artthakorn Sirilatthayakorn, stated that the airspace closure in the Middle East has particular consequences for the European market. This is concerning, as the European market regained strong momentum last year, he said on Thursday, March 5, 2026, following a meeting with the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), as reported by Bangkok Post.
Airspace closure, especially in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha, has led to flight cancellations in various countries whose flights are connected through the Middle Eastern hubs. The increased operational costs for airlines choosing alternative routes will also impact airfares, as fuel typically accounts for 25 percent of airline operational costs.
In the worst-case scenario, TAT estimates a 25 percent decrease from the 2026 target of 36.7 million, to between 27 million and 29 million foreign visitors. If the war ends within three months, the agency estimates an 18 percent decrease to 30-31 million.
In the best-case scenario, if the conflict subsides within two to four weeks, it would only have a 2 percent impact on the country's tourism visits.
TAT is currently intensifying its promotional efforts to unaffected markets, such as medium-haul and short-haul tourists. It remains optimistic that tourist numbers will surge during the Eastern and Songkran holidays in April. "[We hope] to secure at least 30 million travelers this year,” said Artthakorn.
In 2025, Thailand welcomed 33 million international arrivals. Long-haul tourists are expected to contribute to 30 percent of the volume and 45 percent of the revenue for arrivals to Thailand.
Read: Thailand to Raise Airport Fee 53% for Foreign Travelers
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